Constraint-based inventory and cash flow modeling
Days Until Stockout
30
On-hand: 5,000 units
Cash Position
$50,000
Lowest: $25,708
Total Inventory
30,000
Across all states
Blended Metrics (used in calculations):
Total Monthly Burn: $17,800
Sellable
5,000
In Production
15,000
Awaiting Canning
10,000
Committed
0
Tennessee
VanillaDaily Manufacturing
MintAmeripouch
CinnamonTennessee
in productionUnits
15,000
Completion
May 11, 2026
Paid
$9,000
Owed
$9,000
Tennessee
awaiting canningUnits
10,000
Completion
Mar 23, 2026
Paid
$12,000
Owed
$0
Rent - Office
Tennessee - Balance Payment
Daily Manufacturing
🔴 Order NOW (Mint) - Stockout in 30 days(12 days behind)
Recommended Units
10,000
Total Cost
$13,500
Deposit Required
$4,050
Expected Delivery
Apr 27, 2026
Tennessee
🔴 Order NOW (Vanilla) - Stockout in 25 days(31 days behind)
Recommended Units
15,000
Total Cost
$18,000
Deposit Required
$9,000
Expected Delivery
May 11, 2026
Ameripouch
🔴 Order NOW (Cinnamon) - Stockout in 13 days(57 days behind)
Recommended Units
20,000
Total Cost
$23,000
Deposit Required
$9,200
Expected Delivery
May 25, 2026
Without fundraising: covers 0 jumps
Short $1,227 on Jump 1
To cover more jumps and extend your growth runway:
💡 Tip: Enter different fundraise amounts above to see exact coverage for each jump
Tennessee • 15,000 units
$18,000
Total cost
Deposit (immediate)
$9,000
Mar 16
Cash: $50,000
✅ Covered
Balance (at completion)
$9,000
May 11
Cash: $7,773
❌ Short $1,227
Demand at order: 66 units/day
Demand at arrival: 66 units/day
Inventory arrives: May 11, 2026
Answering three operational questions: survival, completion, and growth ceiling
Lowest Cash Point
$25,708
May 11, 2026
Inventory Sellable
Apr 5, 2026
✅ Survives with $25,708 buffer
Lowest Cash Point Calculation:
Starting Cash: $24,292
- Deposits (immediate): Varies by reorders
- Balance payments (at completion): Varies by dates
- Overhead burn: $8,097 per month (approx)
+ Revenue (if any): Zero until inventory sellable
= Lowest Point: $25,708
⚠️ Order will stall at final payment unless additional $1,227 is raised by May 11, 2026
✅ Order can be fully completed
⚠️ Order will stall at final payment unless additional $14,533 is raised by May 25, 2026
Current Daily Demand
150 units/day
Maximum Sustainable
89 units/day
📊 Headroom: -40%
At current cash and lead times, demand above 89 units/day creates a stockout before the next reorder completes.
Implied ad spend ceiling: $4,464/day (assuming $50 CAC)
⚠️ Not self-sustaining within 12 months
At current margins and growth rate, revenue does not fully cover recurring inventory costs + overhead. Additional capital may be needed.
| Month | Revenue | Inventory | Overhead | Net Flow | Cash Position |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | $29,295 | $0 | $17,800 | +$11,495 | $61,495 |
| M2 | $30,760 | $20,029 | $17,800 | -$7,069 | $54,426 |
| M3 | $32,298 | $0 | $17,800 | +$14,498 | $68,924 |
| M4 | $33,913 | $22,082 | $17,800 | -$5,969 | $62,955 |
| M5 | $35,608 | $0 | $17,800 | +$17,808 | $80,763 |
| M6 | $37,389 | $24,345 | $17,800 | -$4,756 | $76,007 |
Showing first 6 months. Net Flow = Revenue - Inventory - Overhead.
Current Cash
$50,000
Lowest Cash Point
$25,708
May 11, 2026
Inventory Sellable
Apr 5, 2026
Revenue Resumes
Continuous